A new cold war? The rivalry between the United States and China in the Trump era

By: Ronald Marquez 

Getty images.(2020) The shape of Asia's new Cold War

In the 20th century, the world was marked by the Cold War, an ideological, political, and military confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. Now, decades later, a question has resurfaced in the international debate:

Are we entering in a new Cold War?

The second administration of Donald Trump intensified a rivalry that had already been brewing, but which now seem to be shaping the international system: the competition with China. However, more than a repetition of the past, this confrontation represents  a transformation of the global order toward a more complex, interdependent, and competitive dynamic.

From friends to enemies:

OpenAI.(2026), friends to enemies(AI-generated image)

For decades, the relationship between this two countries was base on a economic cooperation. China integrated into the global economy, especially after joining the world trade organization in 2001, while USA benefitted from lower production costs and expanding markets.

However, Trump's foreign policy has been marked by a change. Trump's administration has adopted a confrontational approach, arguing that China has taken advantage of the rules of the international system without fully respecting them. This change has resulted in a trade war characterized by tariffs, restrictions, and sanctions targeting strategic sectors.

The technological and economic battle

China's technological advances are putting pressure on the United States(Revelo, 2026).Unlike the Cold War of the 20th century, the current conflict is not about ideologies, because now is about economic and technological hegemony. The competition between USA and China is about leadership in areas such as AI, 5G networks, and digital commerce has become the new battleground.

on the other hand, the United States seeks to limit Chines technological advancement through export restrictions and restricted access to to key technologies, while China pursues self-sufficiency and global expansion. So in that scenario raises a crucial question: Are we witnessing the end of globalization as we know it?

Are we really facing a new Cold War?

Image: own creation

So in that way more than a new Cold War we can talk about a global strategic competition with characteristics specific to the 21st century.

Impact on the international order:

China's new hegemony is not only palpable in the geopolitical and commercial spheres, but also in its capacity for innovation(Párdinas, 2026). In that way, the tensions between the USA and China are reshaping the international system. Multilateral institutions are facing pressure, global supply chains are being reorganized, and intermediary countries must adapt to a more uncertain environment. In this context, the United States role as a global leader is being challenged, while China is emerging as an influential actor on the international order.

Conclusion:

Trump's foreign policy hasn't created a new Cold War in the strict sense, but it has accelerated the transition to a more competitive and unpredictable world. The relationship between this two countries can no longer be understood as one of predominant cooperation, but rather as a structural rivalry.

Unlike in the 20th century, this time the dispute doesn't revolve solely around ideologies or territories, but rather around control of technology, data, and the global economy.

The big question is whether this competition will lead to a deeper conflict or whether both powers will manage to coexist within a transforming international system. So what is clear is that the global balance is shifting, and its effects will be felt in every corner of the world.

References:

Getty Images. (2020). The shape of Asia’s new cold war [Illustration]. En Y. Young-kwan, The Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/

Párdinas, J. E. (2026, marzo 1). Si hay una nueva Guerra Fría, China ya ganó. Letras Libres. https://letraslibres.com/revista/si-hay-una-nueva-guerra-fria-china-ya-gano/01/03/2026

Revelo, R. (2026, marzo 15). ¿Cómo es esta nueva Guerra Fría que enfrenta a Estados Unidos con China, Rusia e Irán?Primicias. https://www.primicias.ec/internacional/nueva-guerra-fria-caracteristicas-estados-unidos-rusia-china-117489