The Alliance at a Crossroads: Relations Between Donald Trump and the European Union Since 2025

By Julián Palomino

The beginning of Donald Trump’s second term as president in January 2025  marked a great uncertainty and reordering of the international order. While the first period of his administration (2017–2021) was marked by rhetorical frictions and a strong skepticism towards multilateral blocs, the deployment of his “America First” agenda since 2025 has pushed transatlantic ties with European countries and the European Union (EU) into a terrain of maximum tension and defensive pragmatism.

Below, we look at the three main pillars that have defined this complex bilateral relationship over the past year and a half.

1. The Conflict of Regulatory and Economic Frameworks.

The Trump administration from the earliest days of 2025 took a muscular economic posture based on neoprotectionism, massive deregulation and the pursuit of direct trade reciprocity, departing from the principles of the World Trade Organization (Brookings Institution, 2026). Washington has forced through drastic measures such as the “10-for-1” regulatory cut at its federal agencies while the EU has maintained a very regulatory approach, with a focus on the strict governance of artificial intelligence, digital markets and the green transition (European Parliament, 2026).

This structural divergence translated into a tariff policy that weakened the historic nexus between Brussels and Washington. The U.S. imposition of selective tariffs on European markets forced the EU to design trade retaliation strategies to safeguard its local industries and to seek transitional agreements which, although stabilizing trade flows in the short term, threaten to limit European strategic autonomy in the long term (IIR, 2026; ResearchGate, 2026).

2. The Greenland Diplomatic Dispute and Security Issues.

The high point of transatlantic tensions occurred between late 2025 and early 2026 with the so-called "Greenland Crisis." Reviving his intentions of territorial expansion, President Trump explicitly threatened Denmark's sovereignty by pressing for the total purchase of the autonomous territory.

The situation escalated alarmingly on January 17, 2026, when the U.S. president announced via the Truth Social platform the imposition of an initial 10% tariff—with projections to escalate to 25% on imports from eight NATO nations if the territorial transfer was not facilitated (Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, 2026; MUC Consulting, 2026). The affected nations (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland) responded unanimously and coordinately, warning that conditioning collective security on territorial ambitions and trade pressures opened the door to a dangerous downward spiral in global cooperation (MUC Consulting, 2026).

3. Towards a New Multipolar Equilibrium

The unpredictability of the White House has forced the European Union to accelerate its own transition toward "security autonomy." Regional leaders no longer perceive the U.S. security umbrella as an unshakeable commitment, but rather as a variable subject to mercantilist negotiation (IIR, 2026; McNamara, 2026).

Trump's return has created a  dificult sitution into the internacional politic,  where the EU's middle powers are firmly grouping around the defense of their territorial integrity, driving a shift towards greater autonomous military spending and shielding their digital trade and climate transition regulations from US interference.

In conclusion, the  transatlantic relationship under Donald Trump's second term has left behind the idealism of traditional 20th-century democratic alliances to transform into a purely transactional bond. For Europe, the period beginning in 2025 has been a painful but necessary lesson in geopolitical realism. Today more than ever, the European Union is forced to consolidate as a united bloc, capable of responding symmetrically to tariff challenges and defending its borders and principles with its own resources against the unilateral turns of its historic ally.

References:

American Association of Exporters and Importers [AAEI]. (21 de enero de 2026). Trump Retracts NATO Tariffs. https://aaei.org/trump-retracts-nato-tariffs/

Brookings Institution. (18 de mayo de 2026). Who(se) rules? Competing concepts of order in the age of Trump. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/whose-rules-competing-concepts-of-order-in-the-age-of-trump/

Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer. (19 de enero de 2026). Trump Administration Threatens New Tariffs on European Allies Linked to Greenland Dispute. https://www.hsfkramer.com/notes/sanctions/2026-posts/trump-administration-threatens-new-tariffs-on-european-allies-linked-to-greenland-dispute

Institute of International Relations [IIR]. (11 de febrero de 2026). The New U.S. Approach to Trade and Partnership with the EU under Trump 2.0. https://www.iir.cz/en/the-new-u-s-approach-to-trade-and-partnership-with-the-eu-under-trump-2-0-1

LSE United States Politics and Policy [LSE USAPP]. (29 de abril de 2026). Donald Trump and the future of US-EU relations with Professor Kathleen McNamara. The Ballpark podcast. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2026/04/29/donald-trump-and-the-future-of-us-eu-relations-with-professor-kathleen-mcnamara-the-ballpark-podcast/